🔑 This Week in 60 Seconds
- Trump visited Beijing (May 14-15) — first presidential China trip since 2017
- No confirmed deals — Boeing jets, ag purchases, oil imports all announced by US but unconfirmed by China
- Taiwan bombshell — Trump put $14B arms sale "in abeyance," called it a "negotiating chip"
- Iran stalemate — Xi pledged no weapons to Iran but won't pressure Tehran
- Putin heads to Beijing next (May 19-20) — 25th anniversary of Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship
- Markets reacted poorly — Dow -0.6%, Nasdaq -1.4%, oil up 3% above $108/barrel
📊 The Numbers
| Indicator |
Move |
Why It Matters |
| Brent Crude |
▲ $108+/bbl (+3%) |
No Strait of Hormuz resolution |
| Dow Futures |
▼ -300 pts (-0.6%) |
Lack of trade deal substance |
| Nasdaq Futures |
▼ -1.4% |
Tech CEOs returned empty-handed |
| Soybean Futures |
▼ Sharp selloff |
Vague ag commitments only |
| US Consumer Sentiment |
Record low |
Iran war + inflation compounding |
| China Youth Unemployment |
16%+ |
Structural challenge persists |
🔍 Deep Dive: The Power Shift Nobody's Talking About
In 2017, Trump brought 30 CEOs to Beijing and the Commerce Department announced $250 billion in deals before Air Force One left the tarmac.
In 2026, Trump brought 17 CEOs — Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Tim Cook (Apple), Elon Musk (Tesla) — and left with... promises.
The difference tells you everything about how the US-China balance has shifted:
China needs America less than before.
- BYD overtook Tesla as the world's largest EV seller. Tesla's China market share fell from 14% to 10%.
- Huawei and Xiaomi are eating into Apple's smartphone dominance in China.
- China's domestic chipmakers are reducing dependency on Nvidia — Beijing is holding off purchases partly to support its own semiconductor ecosystem.
- China controls 60%+ of global rare earth processing — and has weaponized it as leverage against US tariffs.
The 2017 delegation came to sell to China. The 2026 delegation came to ask for access. That's a fundamental power inversion.
🇹🇼 Taiwan: The Quiet Earthquake
Trump told Fox News he discussed Taiwan arms sales with Xi "in great detail" and declared the $14 billion deal approved by Congress in January is now "in abeyance" — calling it "a very good negotiating chip."
Why this matters for business:
- Taiwan produces ~60% of the world's advanced semiconductors (TSMC)
- Any signal of reduced US commitment to Taiwan rattles the global chip supply chain
- Companies dependent on TSMC should be scenario-planning for supply disruption
- The semiconductor decoupling accelerates — both sides will invest more in domestic capacity
⚡ So What? — 3 Things to Do This Week
1. If you import from China: Don't assume tariff stability. The $30B tariff-repeal discussion is vague and unconfirmed. Keep your current hedging strategies in place.
2. If you're in tech/semiconductors: The Taiwan signal is bearish for supply chain stability. If you depend on TSMC or Taiwan-based suppliers, start diversifying now.
3. If you're an investor: Oil above $108 with no Iran resolution means energy stays elevated. Clean energy and EV stocks (especially Chinese manufacturers like BYD) benefit from prolonged fossil fuel disruption.
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