🔑 This Week in 60 Seconds
- 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Summit — 3-day Beijing visit, warm optics, thin deals, $14B Taiwan arms sale shelved
- 🇷🇺🇨🇳 Putin to Beijing (May 19-20) — Confirmed hours after Trump left
- 💰 US Inflation at 3.8% — Highest since May 2023, wages now trailing prices
- 🏦 Fed Chair Transition — Powell exits after 8 years, Kevin Warsh confirmed as successor
- ⛽ Oil above $108 — Strait of Hormuz still blocked, no Iran resolution
- 🤖 Asia's K-Shaped Economy — AI boom drives record profits while oil crisis pushes millions toward poverty
📊 The Numbers
| Indicator |
This Week |
Context |
| US CPI Inflation |
3.8% ▲ |
Highest since May 2023 |
| Brent Crude |
$108+/bbl ▲3% |
Strait of Hormuz still blocked |
| Dow Futures |
-300 pts (-0.6%) |
Post-summit selloff |
| Nasdaq Futures |
-1.4% |
Tech CEOs returned empty-handed |
| US Consumer Sentiment |
Record low |
77% say Trump policies raised costs |
| Taiwan GDP Growth |
13.69% (Q1) |
39-year high, driven by TSMC |
| US Wage Growth |
3.6% < CPI 3.8% |
Wages trail inflation for first time since Apr 2023 |
🏛️ The Big Story: Trump in Beijing
Trump spent May 14-15 in Beijing — his first presidential China visit since 2017. Xi rolled out every diplomatic flourish: military gun salute, Great Hall of the People ceremony, Temple of Heaven stroll, and a rare tour inside Zhongnanhai.
What was announced (by the US):
- Boeing 787 Dreamliner order (quantity/value TBD)
- $20B in US agricultural purchases over 2 years
- "Exploratory" framework on Chinese crude oil purchases
What China confirmed: None of the above. Beijing's readout mentioned only "constructive dialogue" and "mutual respect."
💰 The Fed Changes Guard
Jerome Powell officially stepped down after 8 years. Kevin Warsh, confirmed 53-47 along party lines, takes over as the 17th Fed Chair.
Why it matters:
- Warsh is considered a monetary hawk — expect tighter policy signals
- Markets will watch his first press conference (June 18) closely
- With inflation at 3.8%, Warsh inherits a rate-cut dilemma
⚡ So What? — 3 Things to Do This Week
1. Supply chain managers: Don't restructure based on the summit. Zero confirmed tariff changes. Keep current sourcing diversification plans active.
2. Tech leaders: Start scenario-planning for Taiwan supply disruption. TSMC's Arizona fab won't be at scale until 2028.
3. CFOs & Treasurers: Warsh's hawkish orientation + 3.8% inflation = rates staying higher for longer. Adjust your interest rate assumptions for 2026-27 planning.
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